Scientists forecast that a malfunctioning Soviet satellite is set to crash into Earth today, although the precise landing location remains unknown. Initially launched in 1972 for a mission to Venus, the Kosmos 482 spacecraft never achieved its intended destination and has been orbiting Earth ever since.
Weighing approximately half a ton, the probe is anticipated to descend over water or an uninhabited area. Experts characterize the likelihood of it landing in a populated region as ‘infinitesimally small.’ Nevertheless, the exact timing and location of re-entry are uncertain due to the spacecraft’s age and fluctuations in solar activity.
Marcin Pilinski from the University of Colorado Boulder remarked that while a significant portion of the object may endure re-entry, it is likely to sustain considerable damage upon impact. He also highlighted that the risk to populated areas is exceedingly low. The probe’s batteries and parachutes have long ceased to function, and it is expected to strike Earth at approximately 150 miles per hour.
Kosmos 482 was part of the Soviet Venera program, which aimed to explore Venus. A rocket malfunction left it ensnared in Earth’s orbit, where gravitational forces have gradually drawn it closer to re-entry. Most components of the spacecraft have disintegrated over the decades, leaving only the main spherical module—around one meter in diameter and weighing nearly 1,000 pounds.
According to international treaties, any remaining debris will be the property of Russia. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, utilizing the most recent orbital data, has projected that the module could land anywhere between 52° north and 52° south latitude.
This extensive area encompasses major cities such as London, Brussels, Vienna, Budapest, and Bucharest. In North America, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and Havana are situated along its possible trajectory.
Brazil is at the highest risk in South America, with São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro potentially affected. Even regions in Asia and Australia fall within its path.
