Japan On Edge: Scientists Warn 82% Chance Of Megaquake That Could Kill 300,000

In order to lower the estimated death toll of up to 300,000 people, the Japanese government stated that much more work needs to be done in preparation for a potential “megaquake.”

Although earthquakes are quite unpredictable, a government panel in January raised the likelihood of a significant earthquake in the Nankai Trough off of Japan to 75–82 percent.

In March, the government issued a revised estimate, stating that a megaquake and ensuing wave may result in up to $2 trillion in damages and 298,000 fatalities.

The Central Disaster Management Council released a preparedness plan in 2014 that suggested a number of actions that were supposed to cut the death toll by 80 percent.

An updated contingency plan was released on Tuesday, but the government has stated that the actions made thus far will only reduce the toll by 20%, according to Kyodo news agency.

In order to increase public preparedness, this suggested expedited activities that included building evacuation buildings and embankments as well as holding more frequent drills.

“It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible,” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told a government meeting, local media reported.

In the 500-mile-long Nankai Trough, which runs parallel to Japan’s Pacific coast, one tectonic plate is “subducting”—slowly slipping—under another.

Megaquakes in the Nankai Trough have happened every 100 to 200 years for the last 1,400 years. The final one took place in 1946.

The initial advice warning that the chance had increased was issued by the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) in August of last year, but it was revoked a week later.

Due to irrational fears sparked by social media that a significant earthquake is approaching, some international visitors have been delaying their trip to Japan this summer.

A manga comic that was reprinted in 2021 and foretold a significant catastrophe on July 5, 2025, is of particular concern.

In May, a local tourist official told AFP that Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, had cut flights to Japan because “demand has rapidly decreased.”

According to the tourism agency, Hong Kong visitors to Japan decreased by 11.2 percent in May compared to the same month last year.

However, arrivals from South Korea increased 11.8 percent, while those from mainland China increased 44.8 percent.

“It is impossible with current science to predict earthquakes by specifying the location, time, and magnitude of an earthquake, and to say that an earthquake will or will not occur,” Ryoichi Nomura, head of the JMA, said in May.

“We ask the public to take certain steps so that you can cope with earthquakes no matter when they occur. But we also strongly urge the public not make irrational actions driven by anxiety.”

A magnitude nine earthquake occurred in 2011 approximately 81 miles offshore beneath the North Pacific.

In some locations, the earthquake caused waves as high as 132 feet, and 15,500 people lost their lives.

Furthermore, three nuclear reactors at the Fukushima power plant melted down as a result of the floods, spilling poisonous waste into the environment and forcing thousands of people to evacuate their homes.

A megaquake in the Nankai Trench, however, might be far more destructive than the 2011 Earthquake, which was the strongest earthquake in recorded history.